StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%40%
NRG · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
50%63%
NRG · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +13%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
AncientNRG ban
44%57%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +13%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Dust2NRG ban
50%43%
NRG · 2 mapsedge NRG +7%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
43%50%
NRG · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%50%
NRG · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
CacheNRG pick
67%50%
NRG · 2 mapsedge NRG +17%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Dust2
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanNRG remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:13
NRG 35%Iowa Stormboar 65%
The model gave 65% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by NRG.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
NRG 46%Iowa Stormboar 54%
The model gave 54% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 80%
Series resultNRG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2