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FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 3:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 3:1
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
38%64%
NRG · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +26%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
NukeNRG pick
50%50%
NRG · 6 mapsnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%60%
NRG · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
MirageNRG pick
56%50%
NRG · 5 mapsedge NRG +6%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert pick
50%75%
NRG · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +25%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
Dust2NRG ban
40%67%
NRG · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +27%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%40%
NRG · 2 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Dust2
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickNRG take Mirage
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. PickNRG take Nuke
6. PickSportsBetExpert take Anubis
DeciderOverpass (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
NRG 23%SportsBetExpert 77%
The model gave 77% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by NRG.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
NRG 58%SportsBetExpert 42%
The model gave 58% on NRG — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
NRG 23%SportsBetExpert 77%
The model gave 77% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by NRG.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
NRG 53%SportsBetExpert 47%
The model gave 53% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 73%
Series resultNRG 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 4