StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Voca pick
57%67%
NRG · 3 mapsedge Voca +10%Voca · 8 maps
MirageNRG ban
44%67%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Voca +23%Voca · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%57%
NRG · 6 mapsedge Voca +17%Voca · 3 maps
NukeVoca ban
55%50%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +5%Voca · 2 maps
InfernoVoca ban
56%50%
NRG · 5 mapsedge NRG +6%Voca · 0 maps
CacheNRG pick
67%50%
NRG · 2 mapsedge NRG +17%Voca · 2 maps
OverpassNRG ban
40%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge Voca +10%Voca · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Overpass
2. BanVoca remove Inferno
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickVoca take Dust2
5. BanVoca remove Nuke
6. BanNRG remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:1
NRG 64%Voca 36%
The model gave 64% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
NRG 58%Voca 42%
The model gave 58% on NRG — the map was taken by Voca.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
NRG 33%Voca 67%
The model gave 67% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 68%
Series resultVoca 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3