PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO5
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 2:3series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Liquid#27 in the world · win 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLiquid pick
70%67%
NRG · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Liquid · 8 maps
CacheNRG pick
83%56%
NRG · 8 mapsedge NRG +27%Liquid · 5 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%64%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Liquid +14%Liquid · 10 maps
AncientLiquid ban
55%40%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +15%Liquid · 1 map
Dust2NRG pick
71%44%
NRG · 3 mapsedge NRG +27%Liquid · 5 maps
InfernoLiquid pick
56%67%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Liquid +11%Liquid · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%67%
NRG · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Liquid · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Anubis
2. BanLiquid remove Ancient
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickLiquid take Nuke
5. PickNRG take Dust2
6. PickLiquid take Inferno
DeciderMirage (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed6:13
NRG 82%Liquid 18%
The model gave 82% on NRG — the map was taken by Liquid.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
NRG 51%Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
NRG 78%Liquid 22%
The model gave 78% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
NRG 47%Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
NRG 38%Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 61%
Series resultLiquid 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map4 of 5