FRAG University 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 12:16series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 12:16
Wildcard#46 in the world · win 16:12The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNRG ban
46%47%
NRG · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Wildcard · 13 maps
CacheWildcard ban
67%50%
NRG · 14 mapsedge NRG +17%Wildcard · 4 maps
MirageNRG ban
46%31%
NRG · 9 mapsedge NRG +15%Wildcard · 9 maps
NukeWildcard ban
75%50%
NRG · 8 mapsedge NRG +25%Wildcard · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
70%50%
NRG · 6 mapsedge NRG +20%Wildcard · 6 maps
AncientWildcard ban
55%50%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +5%Wildcard · 0 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%40%
NRG · 0 mapsedge NRG +10%Wildcard · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Anubis
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. BanNRG remove Mirage
4. BanWildcard remove Cache
5. BanNRG remove Inferno
6. BanWildcard remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed12:16
NRG 66%Wildcard 34%
The model gave 66% on NRG — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 60%
Series resultWildcard 12:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1