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European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
67%76%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Atreides +9%Atreides · 17 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
57%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Atreides · 10 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
53%36%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Atreides · 7 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
78%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +38%Atreides · 1 map
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
57%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsnearly even +1%Atreides · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Atreides · 10 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%43%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Atreides · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanAtreides remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Dust2
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Nuclear TigeRES 36%Atreides 64%
The model gave 64% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Nuclear TigeRES 60%Atreides 40%
The model gave 60% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 72%
Series resultAtreides 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2