CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · win 1:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
50%65%
Nuclear TigeRES · 26 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%Black Phoenix · 64 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
56%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 23 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +16%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
44%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
Infernopossible decider
71%68%
Nuclear TigeRES · 17 mapsnearly even +3%Black Phoenix · 21 map
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
27%52%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Black Phoenix +25%Black Phoenix · 29 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
60%48%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +12%Black Phoenix · 23 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
66%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 25 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +33%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (71% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Nuclear TigeRES 50%Black Phoenix 50%
The model gave 50% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 51%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1