NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Butterfly ban
56%73%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 7 maps
AncientButterfly pick
56%78%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +22%Butterfly · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 6 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
71%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 17 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +31%Butterfly · 1 map
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
55%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Butterfly · 6 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
71%25%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +46%Butterfly · 4 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Dust2
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
DeciderNuke (53% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Nuclear TigeRES 89%Butterfly 11%
The model gave 89% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Nuclear TigeRES 40%Butterfly 60%
The model gave 60% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 63%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2