1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CYBERSHOKE#91 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
65%53%
Nuclear TigeRES · 16 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +12%CYBERSHOKE · 13 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
44%53%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +9%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
63%29%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +34%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
20%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +47%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
73%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +23%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
CacheCYBERSHOKE ban
71%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +21%CYBERSHOKE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 38%CYBERSHOKE 62%
The model gave 62% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Nuclear TigeRES 83%CYBERSHOKE 17%
The model gave 83% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Nuclear TigeRES 62%CYBERSHOKE 38%
The model gave 62% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 78%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3