PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
44%54%
Nuclear TigeRES · 23 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%ex-RUSTEC · 44 maps
Anubispossible decider
52%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 19 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +15%ex-RUSTEC · 26 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
43%54%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%ex-RUSTEC · 33 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
74%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +24%ex-RUSTEC · 16 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
30%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +20%ex-RUSTEC · 22 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
65%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 22 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
60%47%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (52% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
Nuclear TigeRES 52%ex-RUSTEC 48%
The model gave 52% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 36%ex-RUSTEC 64%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct1:13
Nuclear TigeRES 35%ex-RUSTEC 65%
The model gave 65% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 59%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3