NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FORZE Reload#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%68%
Nuclear TigeRES · 28 mapsedge FORZE Reload +18%FORZE Reload · 18 maps
AncientFORZE Reload ban
69%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 25 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%FORZE Reload · 9 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 21 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%FORZE Reload · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
59%63%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsnearly even -4%FORZE Reload · 12 maps
CacheFORZE Reload pick
60%74%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge FORZE Reload +14%FORZE Reload · 15 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
33%59%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge FORZE Reload +26%FORZE Reload · 13 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
70%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 16 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +20%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickFORZE Reload take Cache
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Ancient
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (59% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Nuclear TigeRES 29%FORZE Reload 71%
The model gave 71% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Nuclear TigeRES 63%FORZE Reload 37%
The model gave 63% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 52%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2