PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Johnny Speeds pick
44%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 23 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +12%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
AncientJohnny Speeds ban
64%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 21 mapnearly even +4%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
52%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 19 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +12%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
74%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
43%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +7%Johnny Speeds · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%45%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +15%Johnny Speeds · 7 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +11%Johnny Speeds · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Dust2
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Ancient
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderCache (60% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Nuclear TigeRES 57%Johnny Speeds 43%
The model gave 57% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Nuclear TigeRES 34%Johnny Speeds 66%
The model gave 66% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 57%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2