NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
55%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%Just Players · 32 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
53%41%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +12%Just Players · 23 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%59%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge Just Players +9%Just Players · 23 maps
NukeJust Players ban
50%47%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsnearly even +3%Just Players · 13 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
74%78%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsnearly even -4%Just Players · 5 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Just Players +17%Just Players · 5 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Just Players +6%Just Players · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
DeciderAncient (50% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 59%Just Players 41%
The model gave 59% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 47%Just Players 53%
The model gave 53% on Just Players — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 64%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2