NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#70 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES ban
50%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Lavked +17%Lavked · 2 maps
NukeLavked ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 2 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES pick
50%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Ancient
2. BanLavked remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 37%Lavked 63%
The model gave 63% on Lavked — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
Nuclear TigeRES 53%Lavked 47%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 62%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2