NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLavked pick
33%61%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Lavked +28%Lavked · 14 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%44%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%Lavked · 12 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
60%72%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Lavked +12%Lavked · 14 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
63%77%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Lavked +14%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoLavked ban
60%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +27%Lavked · 8 maps
AnubisLavked ban
56%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +16%Lavked · 1 map
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickLavked take Nuke
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (57% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 34%Lavked 66%
The model gave 66% on Lavked — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
Nuclear TigeRES 77%Lavked 23%
The model gave 77% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 53%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2