IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · win 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
65%69%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsnearly even -4%magic · 9 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
61%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsnearly even +4%magic · 3 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
57%38%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +19%magic · 4 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
33%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge magic +23%magic · 5 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 0 maps
Cachemagic ban
71%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsnearly even +4%magic · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
78%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +18%magic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. Pickmagic take Ancient
5. Banmagic remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (78% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 57%magic 43%
The model gave 57% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Nuclear TigeRES 42%magic 58%
The model gave 58% on magic — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 71%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2