NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Oxuji#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeOxuji pick
40%71%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Oxuji +31%Oxuji · 3 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES ban
60%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Oxuji +7%Oxuji · 2 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES pick
50%43%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Oxuji · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Oxuji · 2 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Oxuji · 0 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +17%Oxuji · 2 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Oxuji · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Dust2
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 54%Oxuji 46%
The model gave 54% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
Nuclear TigeRES 53%Oxuji 47%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 60%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2