CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#120 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega#138 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
56%62%
PCIFIC · 28 mapsedge Omega +6%Omega · 17 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
41%57%
PCIFIC · 18 mapsedge Omega +16%Omega · 3 maps
MirageOmega pick
53%64%
PCIFIC · 11 mapsedge Omega +11%Omega · 7 maps
CacheOmega ban
69%40%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge PCIFIC +29%Omega · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%63%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsedge Omega +13%Omega · 4 maps
AnubisOmega ban
24%50%
PCIFIC · 13 mapsedge Omega +26%Omega · 0 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%30%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +20%Omega · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanOmega remove Anubis
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickOmega take Mirage
5. BanOmega remove Cache
6. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
PCIFIC 40%Omega 60%
The model gave 60% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
PCIFIC 41%Omega 59%
The model gave 59% on Omega — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
PCIFIC 77%Omega 23%
The model gave 77% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 53%
Series resultOmega 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3