WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PsychoFace pick
50%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge PsychoFace +7%PsychoFace · 10 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
55%29%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +26%PsychoFace · 3 maps
AnubisPsychoFace ban
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%PsychoFace · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsnearly even +0%PsychoFace · 6 maps
MiragePsychoFace ban
71%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +38%PsychoFace · 5 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%63%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge PsychoFace +13%PsychoFace · 4 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PsychoFace · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanPsychoFace remove Mirage
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
5. BanPsychoFace remove Anubis
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
Nuclear TigeRES 40%PsychoFace 60%
The model gave 60% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 63%PsychoFace 37%
The model gave 63% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Nuclear TigeRES 50%PsychoFace 50%
The model gave 50% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 71%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3