NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RUSTEC pick
42%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 8 mapsedge RUSTEC +8%RUSTEC · 4 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
67%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 8 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%RUSTEC · 0 maps
NukeRUSTEC ban
55%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +15%RUSTEC · 1 map
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
55%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%RUSTEC · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
71%63%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +8%RUSTEC · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RUSTEC · 2 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge RUSTEC +10%RUSTEC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickRUSTEC take Dust2
5. BanRUSTEC remove Nuke
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Nuclear TigeRES 39%RUSTEC 61%
The model gave 61% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Nuclear TigeRES 69%RUSTEC 31%
The model gave 69% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 69%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2