PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XI#239 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2XI ban
44%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 23 mapsnearly even +4%XI · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
64%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 21 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +14%XI · 2 maps
AnubisXI ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 18 mapsnearly even +0%XI · 0 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
74%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +34%XI · 1 map
NukeXI pick
43%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge XI +7%XI · 2 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
56%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%XI · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge XI +28%XI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanXI remove Dust2
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickXI take Nuke
5. BanXI remove Anubis
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
DeciderAncient (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
Nuclear TigeRES 53%XI 47%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:0
Nuclear TigeRES 53%XI 47%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 80%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2