FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#170 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUnreal Nightmare pick
30%50%
NuTorious · 6 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +20%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
InfernoNuTorious pick
50%50%
NuTorious · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
MirageUnreal Nightmare ban
57%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge NuTorious +7%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge Unreal Nightmare +10%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
CacheUnreal Nightmare ban
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge Unreal Nightmare +10%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge Unreal Nightmare +10%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Mirage
3. PickNuTorious take Inferno
4. PickUnreal Nightmare take Ancient
5. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Cache
6. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
NuTorious 37%Unreal Nightmare 63%
The model gave 63% on Unreal Nightmare — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
NuTorious 60%Unreal Nightmare 40%
The model gave 60% on NuTorious — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Model check result
Model favoriteUnreal Nightmare · 61%
Series resultNuTorious 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2