ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ODDIK#140 in the world · win 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageODDIK pick
71%29%
ODDIK · 10 mapsedge ODDIK +42%Sementes do Mal · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%25%
ODDIK · 6 mapsedge ODDIK +35%Sementes do Mal · 4 maps
Dust2ODDIK ban
46%40%
ODDIK · 9 mapsedge ODDIK +6%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
AncientSementes do Mal ban
55%50%
ODDIK · 7 mapsedge ODDIK +5%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
AnubisSementes do Mal pick
63%50%
ODDIK · 4 mapsedge ODDIK +13%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
NukeSementes do Mal ban
75%50%
ODDIK · 4 mapsedge ODDIK +25%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
DefaultODDIK ban
50%50%
ODDIK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanODDIK remove Default
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Nuke
3. PickODDIK take Mirage
4. PickSementes do Mal take Anubis
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Ancient
6. BanODDIK remove Dust2
DeciderCache (60% / 25%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ODDIK 53%Sementes do Mal 47%
The model gave 53% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Model check result
Model favoriteODDIK · 63%
Series resultODDIK 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1