BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 13:6series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 13:6
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeOG ban
50%58%
OG · 0 mapsedge RBLS +8%RBLS · 8 maps
OverpassRBLS ban
60%50%
OG · 1 mapedge OG +10%RBLS · 4 maps
Dust2RBLS ban
50%57%
OG · 0 mapsedge RBLS +7%RBLS · 3 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
50%33%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +17%RBLS · 2 maps
InfernoOG ban
50%67%
OG · 0 mapsedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 2 maps
AncientOG ban
50%40%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +10%RBLS · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
OG · 0 mapsedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Nuke
2. BanRBLS remove Anubis
3. BanOG remove Ancient
4. BanRBLS remove Dust2
5. BanOG remove Inferno
6. BanRBLS remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
OG 42%RBLS 58%
The model gave 58% on RBLS — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 61%
Series resultOG 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1