Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2OG pick
75%36%
OG · 12 mapsedge OG +39%Sangal · 7 maps
NukeSangal pick
54%79%
OG · 9 mapsedge Sangal +25%Sangal · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
58%50%
OG · 8 mapsedge OG +8%Sangal · 8 maps
CacheOG ban
33%64%
OG · 5 mapsedge Sangal +31%Sangal · 10 maps
AncientSangal ban
60%56%
OG · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Sangal · 5 maps
InfernoSangal ban
31%50%
OG · 9 mapsedge Sangal +19%Sangal · 0 maps
AnubisOG ban
50%64%
OG · 0 mapsedge Sangal +14%Sangal · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Anubis
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. PickOG take Dust2
4. PickSangal take Nuke
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanOG remove Cache
DeciderMirage (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed15:19
OG 86%Sangal 14%
The model gave 86% on OG — the map was taken by Sangal.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
OG 22%Sangal 78%
The model gave 78% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 79%
Series resultSangal 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2