Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 13:9series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 13:9
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%55%
OG · 8 mapsedge SINQU +5%SINQU · 7 maps
Dust2SINQU ban
75%40%
OG · 12 mapsedge OG +35%SINQU · 1 map
CacheOG ban
33%27%
OG · 5 mapsedge OG +6%SINQU · 7 maps
AncientSINQU ban
60%22%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +38%SINQU · 5 maps
InfernoOG ban
25%50%
OG · 8 mapsedge SINQU +25%SINQU · 2 maps
MirageSINQU ban
58%50%
OG · 8 mapsedge OG +8%SINQU · 0 maps
AnubisOG ban
50%33%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +17%SINQU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Anubis
2. BanSINQU remove Dust2
3. BanOG remove Cache
4. BanSINQU remove Mirage
5. BanOG remove Inferno
6. BanSINQU remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
OG 45%SINQU 55%
The model gave 55% on SINQU — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 73%
Series resultOG 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1