ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2OG pick
71%74%
OG · 10 mapsnearly even -3%SPARTA · 30 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
55%55%
OG · 7 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 18 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
56%41%
OG · 5 mapsedge OG +15%SPARTA · 18 maps
NukeOG ban
45%50%
OG · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +5%SPARTA · 14 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
50%47%
OG · 6 mapsnearly even +3%SPARTA · 11 maps
CacheOG ban
29%50%
OG · 3 mapsedge SPARTA +21%SPARTA · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%33%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +27%SPARTA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Cache
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickOG take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanOG remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
OG 44%SPARTA 56%
The model gave 56% on SPARTA — the map was taken by OG.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
OG 48%SPARTA 52%
The model gave 52% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
OG 50%SPARTA 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3