BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
50%71%
OG · 2 mapsedge Spirit +21%Spirit · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%83%
OG · 2 mapsedge Spirit +33%Spirit · 8 maps
OverpassOG pick
60%29%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +31%Spirit · 3 maps
NukeSpirit ban
38%67%
OG · 4 mapsedge Spirit +29%Spirit · 2 maps
AncientOG ban
50%75%
OG · 0 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 4 maps
AnubisOG ban
50%57%
OG · 0 mapsedge Spirit +7%Spirit · 3 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
67%50%
OG · 2 mapsedge OG +17%Spirit · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Anubis
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickOG take Overpass
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanOG remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 83%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
OG 53%Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the map was taken by Spirit.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
OG 26%Spirit 74%
The model gave 74% on Spirit — the map was taken by OG.
Ancientprediction correct16:19
OG 25%Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 93%
Series resultSpirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3