ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
60%46%
OLDBOYS PL · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +14%DONSTU · 9 maps
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
33%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsedge DONSTU +17%DONSTU · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 4 maps
InfernoOLDBOYS PL ban
60%44%
OLDBOYS PL · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +16%DONSTU · 5 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
57%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 3 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +7%DONSTU · 0 maps
NukeOLDBOYS PL pick
67%40%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +27%DONSTU · 1 map
DefaultDONSTU ban
60%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +10%DONSTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Inferno
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickOLDBOYS PL take Nuke
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Default
6. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
OLDBOYS PL 77%DONSTU 23%
The model gave 77% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
OLDBOYS PL 61%DONSTU 39%
The model gave 61% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
OLDBOYS PL 50%DONSTU 50%
The model gave 50% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 56%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3