CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOlympus pick
50%38%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge Olympus +12%DETONATE · 9 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
60%30%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Olympus +30%DETONATE · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%29%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Olympus +14%DETONATE · 3 maps
CacheOlympus ban
50%56%
Olympus · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +6%DETONATE · 5 maps
NukeDETONATE pick
57%50%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Olympus +7%DETONATE · 2 maps
AncientOlympus ban
50%50%
Olympus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 2 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%50%
Olympus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
3. PickOlympus take Inferno
4. PickDETONATE take Nuke
5. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
6. BanOlympus remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (43% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Olympus 53%DETONATE 47%
The model gave 53% on Olympus — the map was taken by Olympus.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Olympus 59%DETONATE 41%
The model gave 59% on Olympus — the map was taken by Olympus.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 60%
Series resultOlympus 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2