CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
60%70%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 19 maps
InfernoOlympus pick
57%53%
Olympus · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Overtake Sector · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%46%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Olympus +11%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
Dust2Olympus ban
50%46%
Olympus · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
43%50%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
CacheOlympus ban
50%63%
Olympus · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
57%50%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Olympus +7%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Cache
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickOlympus take Inferno
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanOlympus remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Olympus 37%Overtake Sector 63%
The model gave 63% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Olympus 64%Overtake Sector 36%
The model gave 64% on Olympus — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 56%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2