ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
40%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +10%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
MirageOlympus pick
50%33%
Olympus · 0 mapsedge Olympus +17%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
Dust2Olympus ban
50%33%
Olympus · 0 mapsedge Olympus +17%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
NukeWanted Goons ban
40%40%
Olympus · 1 mapnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 1 map
AnubisOlympus ban
40%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +10%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
40%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +10%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Dust2
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. PickOlympus take Mirage
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Nuke
6. BanOlympus remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
Olympus 47%Wanted Goons 53%
The model gave 53% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Olympus.
Infernoprediction correct1:13
Olympus 43%Wanted Goons 57%
The model gave 57% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Olympus 40%Wanted Goons 60%
The model gave 60% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Olympus.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 52%
Series resultOlympus 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3