CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWithout a Roof pick
50%68%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge Without a Roof +18%Without a Roof · 15 maps
InfernoOlympus pick
57%65%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +8%Without a Roof · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Olympus · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 10 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
57%58%
Olympus · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Without a Roof · 8 maps
Dust2Olympus ban
50%45%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge Olympus +5%Without a Roof · 7 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
43%60%
Olympus · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +17%Without a Roof · 1 map
CacheOlympus ban
50%57%
Olympus · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%Without a Roof · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Cache
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickOlympus take Inferno
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanOlympus remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Olympus 53%Without a Roof 47%
The model gave 53% on Olympus — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Olympus 52%Without a Roof 48%
The model gave 52% on Olympus — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 66%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2