ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
58%45%
Omega · 8 mapsedge Omega +13%Entropy · 25 maps
AncientOmega pick
57%52%
Omega · 10 mapsedge Omega +5%Entropy · 17 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
83%25%
Omega · 14 mapsedge Omega +58%Entropy · 12 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%50%
Omega · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 14 maps
AnubisOmega ban
50%53%
Omega · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 11 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
50%45%
Omega · 4 mapsedge Omega +5%Entropy · 7 maps
DefaultOmega ban
40%50%
Omega · 1 mapedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Anubis
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickOmega take Ancient
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Inferno
6. BanOmega remove Default
DeciderMirage (58% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Omega 60%Entropy 40%
The model gave 60% on Omega — the map was taken by Entropy.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Omega 94%Entropy 6%
The model gave 94% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Omega 55%Entropy 45%
The model gave 55% on Omega — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega · 62%
Series resultEntropy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3