GOEXANIMO Battle of Baltics 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Optibet#150 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fraternityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFraternity ban
67%50%
Optibet · 5 mapsedge Optibet +17%Fraternity · 0 maps
AnubisOptibet pick
57%50%
Optibet · 3 mapsedge Optibet +7%Fraternity · 0 maps
MirageFraternity pick
33%50%
Optibet · 2 mapsedge Fraternity +17%Fraternity · 0 maps
Dust2Optibet ban
40%50%
Optibet · 1 mapedge Fraternity +10%Fraternity · 0 maps
NukeFraternity ban
40%50%
Optibet · 1 mapedge Fraternity +10%Fraternity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOptibet remove Dust2
2. BanFraternity remove Ancient
3. PickOptibet take Anubis
4. PickFraternity take Mirage
5. BanFraternity remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Optibet 37%Fraternity 63%
The model gave 63% on Fraternity — the map was taken by Fraternity.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Optibet 69%Fraternity 31%
The model gave 69% on Optibet — the map was taken by Optibet.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Optibet 40%Fraternity 60%
The model gave 60% on Fraternity — the map was taken by Optibet.
Model check result
Model favoriteOptibet · 62%
Series resultOptibet 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3