Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Oramond#119 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Oramond ban
44%33%
Oramond · 5 mapsedge Oramond +11%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%44%
Oramond · 5 mapsedge Oramond +12%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
AnubisOramond pick
63%33%
Oramond · 4 mapsedge Oramond +30%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
33%29%
Oramond · 2 mapsnearly even +4%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
AncientOramond ban
60%67%
Oramond · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
DefaultHYPERSPIRIT pick
60%60%
Oramond · 1 mapnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
60%40%
Oramond · 1 mapedge Oramond +20%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOramond remove Ancient
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
3. PickOramond take Anubis
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Default
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
6. BanOramond remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (56% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Oramond 59%HYPERSPIRIT 41%
The model gave 59% on Oramond — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Oramond 79%HYPERSPIRIT 21%
The model gave 79% on Oramond — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteOramond · 61%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2