Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Orion Wanderersloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sashi#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
50%25%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +25%Sashi · 12 maps
NukeOrion Wanderers pick
50%47%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Sashi · 11 maps
AncientSashi ban
50%50%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 6 maps
InfernoOrion Wanderers ban
50%80%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsedge Sashi +30%Sashi · 6 maps
CacheSashi pick
50%78%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsedge Sashi +28%Sashi · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%63%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsedge Sashi +13%Sashi · 4 maps
OverpassOrion Wanderers ban
50%67%
Orion Wanderers · 0 mapsedge Sashi +17%Sashi · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOrion Wanderers remove Inferno
2. BanSashi remove Dust2
3. PickOrion Wanderers take Nuke
4. PickSashi take Cache
5. BanSashi remove Ancient
6. BanOrion Wanderers remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Orion Wanderers 77%Sashi 23%
The model gave 77% on Orion Wanderers — the map was taken by Sashi.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Orion Wanderers 50%Sashi 50%
The model gave 50% on Orion Wanderers — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 81%
Series resultSashi 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2