ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOvertake Sector pick
56%29%
Overtake Sector · 14 mapsedge Overtake Sector +27%Chicken Coop · 10 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
70%40%
Overtake Sector · 19 mapsedge Overtake Sector +30%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Dust2Chicken Coop pick
38%44%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge Chicken Coop +6%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
46%33%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
63%50%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%56%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +6%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
3. PickOvertake Sector take Inferno
4. PickChicken Coop take Dust2
5. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
DeciderAncient (46% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Overtake Sector 79%Chicken Coop 21%
The model gave 79% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Cacheprediction missed6:13
Overtake Sector 60%Chicken Coop 40%
The model gave 60% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 54%
Series resultChicken Coop 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2