CROSSFIRE Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
55%43%
Overtake Sector · 7 mapsedge Overtake Sector +12%raisedbypixels · 3 maps
Dust2raisedbypixels pick
56%50%
Overtake Sector · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%raisedbypixels · 2 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
22%40%
Overtake Sector · 5 mapsedge raisedbypixels +18%raisedbypixels · 1 map
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
29%50%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge raisedbypixels +21%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Overpassraisedbypixels ban
50%40%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%raisedbypixels · 1 map
Anubisraisedbypixels ban
67%50%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%40%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%raisedbypixels · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
2. Banraisedbypixels remove Anubis
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. Pickraisedbypixels take Dust2
5. Banraisedbypixels remove Overpass
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Overtake Sector 28%raisedbypixels 72%
The model gave 72% on raisedbypixels — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Overtake Sector 58%raisedbypixels 42%
The model gave 58% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 55%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2