ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
regain#199 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
67%38%
Overtake Sector · 20 mapsedge Overtake Sector +29%regain · 12 maps
Infernoregain pick
56%53%
Overtake Sector · 14 mapsnearly even +3%regain · 13 maps
Dust2regain ban
38%43%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge regain +5%regain · 10 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
46%62%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge regain +16%regain · 9 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%56%
Overtake Sector · 1 mapnearly even +4%regain · 5 maps
Cacheregain ban
56%50%
Overtake Sector · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%regain · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
2. Banregain remove Cache
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. Pickregain take Inferno
5. Banregain remove Dust2
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Overtake Sector 79%regain 21%
The model gave 79% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Overtake Sector 50%regain 50%
The model gave 50% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Overtake Sector 35%regain 65%
The model gave 65% on regain — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 58%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3