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CROSSFIRE Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
25%45%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Wanted Goons +20%Wanted Goons · 7 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
44%38%
Overtake Sector · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%50%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%40%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Wanted Goons · 6 maps
OverpassOvertake Sector ban
50%57%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
33%33%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
AnubisWanted Goons ban
67%40%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +27%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Overtake Sector 26%Wanted Goons 74%
The model gave 74% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Overtake Sector 60%Wanted Goons 40%
The model gave 60% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Overtake Sector 57%Wanted Goons 43%
The model gave 57% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 59%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3