Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
50%59%
overTIME · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +9%G2 Ares · 33 maps
MirageG2 Ares ban
43%34%
overTIME · 3 mapsedge overTIME +9%G2 Ares · 25 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%56%
overTIME · 3 mapsnearly even +1%G2 Ares · 23 maps
Dust2G2 Ares ban
50%30%
overTIME · 0 mapsedge overTIME +20%G2 Ares · 23 maps
CacheoverTIME ban
50%48%
overTIME · 0 mapsnearly even +2%G2 Ares · 19 maps
AnubisoverTIME pick
43%40%
overTIME · 3 mapsnearly even +3%G2 Ares · 11 maps
DefaultoverTIME ban
50%67%
overTIME · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%G2 Ares · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanoverTIME remove Cache
2. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
3. PickoverTIME take Anubis
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Mirage
6. BanoverTIME remove Default
DeciderAncient (57% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
overTIME 56%G2 Ares 44%
The model gave 56% on overTIME — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
overTIME 49%G2 Ares 51%
The model gave 51% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 70%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2