ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Academy#182 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageImperial pick
43%65%
paiN Academy · 10 mapsedge Imperial +22%Imperial · 16 maps
NukepaiN Academy ban
42%71%
paiN Academy · 8 mapsedge Imperial +29%Imperial · 13 maps
InfernopaiN Academy ban
33%63%
paiN Academy · 5 mapsedge Imperial +30%Imperial · 15 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
40%55%
paiN Academy · 11 mapsedge Imperial +15%Imperial · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
42%60%
paiN Academy · 8 mapsedge Imperial +18%Imperial · 6 maps
AnubispaiN Academy pick
55%57%
paiN Academy · 7 mapsnearly even -2%Imperial · 3 maps
DefaultImperial ban
71%50%
paiN Academy · 3 mapsedge paiN Academy +21%Imperial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
2. BanImperial remove Default
3. PickpaiN Academy take Anubis
4. PickImperial take Mirage
5. BanImperial remove Dust2
6. BanpaiN Academy remove Inferno
DeciderCache (42% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
paiN Academy 31%Imperial 69%
The model gave 69% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
paiN Academy 21%Imperial 79%
The model gave 79% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 74%
Series resultImperial 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2