IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 9:13
BIG#35 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBIG ban
44%43%
paiN · 5 mapsnearly even +1%BIG · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
paiN · 2 mapsedge BIG +6%BIG · 5 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
50%33%
paiN · 4 mapsedge paiN +17%BIG · 2 maps
Dust2BIG ban
63%60%
paiN · 4 mapsnearly even +3%BIG · 1 map
AnubisBIG ban
57%40%
paiN · 3 mapsedge paiN +17%BIG · 1 map
AncientpaiN ban
50%43%
paiN · 0 mapsedge paiN +7%BIG · 3 maps
InfernopaiN ban
40%60%
paiN · 1 mapedge BIG +20%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. BanpaiN remove Inferno
4. BanBIG remove Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Overpass
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed9:13
paiN 67%BIG 33%
The model gave 67% on paiN — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 67%
Series resultBIG 9:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1