Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Phantom pick
55%65%
paiN · 7 mapsedge Phantom +10%Phantom · 13 maps
NukepaiN pick
50%57%
paiN · 10 mapsedge Phantom +7%Phantom · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%41%
paiN · 2 mapsedge paiN +9%Phantom · 13 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
50%67%
paiN · 6 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 8 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%54%
paiN · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom · 9 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
63%60%
paiN · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Phantom · 1 map
InfernoPhantom ban
57%50%
paiN · 3 mapsedge paiN +7%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickpaiN take Nuke
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Anubis
6. BanpaiN remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (50% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
paiN 37%Phantom 63%
The model gave 63% on Phantom — the map was taken by paiN.
Anubisprediction missed5:13
paiN 56%Phantom 44%
The model gave 56% on paiN — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
paiN 43%Phantom 57%
The model gave 57% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 82%
Series resultPhantom 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3