PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#11 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAurora ban
50%50%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 0 maps
Dust2PARIVISION pick
50%50%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 2 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%50%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 2 maps
InfernoAurora pick
40%50%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 0 maps
MirageAurora ban
60%50%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge PARIVISION +10%Aurora · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickPARIVISION take Dust2
4. PickAurora take Inferno
5. BanAurora remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
PARIVISION 47%Aurora 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
PARIVISION 53%Aurora 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 61%
Series resultAurora 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2