FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#17 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FURIA#5 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
55%57%
PARIVISION · 7 mapsnearly even -2%FURIA · 10 maps
MirageFURIA pick
56%67%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsedge FURIA +11%FURIA · 8 maps
AncientPARIVISION pick
70%56%
PARIVISION · 6 mapsedge PARIVISION +14%FURIA · 5 maps
InfernoPARIVISION ban
30%50%
PARIVISION · 6 mapsedge FURIA +20%FURIA · 4 maps
CacheFURIA ban
29%40%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge FURIA +11%FURIA · 6 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%64%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge FURIA +14%FURIA · 7 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
50%29%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsedge PARIVISION +21%FURIA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanFURIA remove Anubis
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. PickFURIA take Mirage
5. BanFURIA remove Cache
6. BanPARIVISION remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (55% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
PARIVISION 68%FURIA 32%
The model gave 68% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by FURIA.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
PARIVISION 28%FURIA 72%
The model gave 72% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 74%
Series resultFURIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2