ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#20 in the world · win 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
42%42%
PARIVISION · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Natus Vincere · 8 maps
AncientPARIVISION pick
69%29%
PARIVISION · 9 mapsedge PARIVISION +40%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
MirageNatus Vincere ban
43%36%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge PARIVISION +7%Natus Vincere · 7 maps
AnubisPARIVISION ban
43%57%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +14%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
CacheNatus Vincere pick
29%71%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +42%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
40%50%
PARIVISION · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +10%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%63%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. PickNatus Vincere take Cache
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Mirage
6. BanPARIVISION remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (42% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
PARIVISION 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
PARIVISION 12%Natus Vincere 88%
The model gave 88% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
PARIVISION 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3