IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UA#33 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINNERS pick
38%67%
Passion UA · 4 mapsedge SINNERS +29%SINNERS · 2 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
57%33%
Passion UA · 3 mapsedge Passion UA +24%SINNERS · 2 maps
Dust2Passion UA pick
57%60%
Passion UA · 3 mapsnearly even -3%SINNERS · 1 map
NukePassion UA ban
40%50%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 2 maps
OverpassPassion UA ban
60%60%
Passion UA · 1 mapnearly even +0%SINNERS · 1 map
AnubisSINNERS ban
40%50%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPassion UA remove Nuke
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. PickPassion UA take Dust2
4. PickSINNERS take Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
6. BanPassion UA remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Passion UA 50%SINNERS 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Passion UA 21%SINNERS 79%
The model gave 79% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Overpassprediction missed8:13
Passion UA 50%SINNERS 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 53%
Series resultSINNERS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3