CCT 2026 South America Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Patins da Ferrari#154 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePatins da Ferrari ban
38%50%
Patins da Ferrari · 4 mapsedge Grêmio +12%Grêmio · 0 maps
AncientPatins da Ferrari pick
71%50%
Patins da Ferrari · 3 mapsedge Patins da Ferrari +21%Grêmio · 0 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
71%50%
Patins da Ferrari · 3 mapsedge Patins da Ferrari +21%Grêmio · 0 maps
DefaultGrêmio pick
60%60%
Patins da Ferrari · 1 mapnearly even +0%Grêmio · 1 map
Dust2Grêmio ban
50%50%
Patins da Ferrari · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Grêmio · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPatins da Ferrari remove Nuke
2. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
3. PickPatins da Ferrari take Ancient
4. PickGrêmio take Default
5. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed16:14
Patins da Ferrari 47%Grêmio 53%
The model gave 53% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Patins da Ferrari.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Patins da Ferrari 74%Grêmio 26%
The model gave 74% on Patins da Ferrari — the map was taken by Patins da Ferrari.
Model check result
Model favoritePatins da Ferrari · 61%
Series resultPatins da Ferrari 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2