ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PATSANVISION ban
40%50%
PATSANVISION · 1 mapedge NEEDORC +10%NEEDORC · 0 maps
MirageNEEDORC ban
40%50%
PATSANVISION · 1 mapedge NEEDORC +10%NEEDORC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPATSANVISION remove Dust2
2. BanNEEDORC remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
PATSANVISION 47%NEEDORC 53%
The model gave 53% on NEEDORC — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
PATSANVISION 43%NEEDORC 57%
The model gave 57% on NEEDORC — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Model check result
Model favoritePATSANVISION · 60%
Series resultPATSANVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2